UMPIRY
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Noemi Maines vs Maria Toma — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula R512

W35 Santa Margherita di PulaR512ClayWed 14 Oct · 12:05
Noemi MainesWTA #647 · ITA66%
VSSlight edge · Maines N.
Maria TomaWTA #844 · ROU34%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Maines N.
66%34%

Maines N. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Maines N.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Toma M.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
What we know
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 574
Clay ELO1 520
Last 106–4
Age20
EarningsCareer $21K2026 $9K
ELO1 506
Clay ELO1 507
Last 104–6
Age27
EarningsCareer $38K2026 $5K

Noemi Maines faces Maria Toma in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula r512 on clay. Noemi Maines holds the paper edge — ranked #647. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Maria Toma dropped just 2 games past Laura Boehner.
  • Fatigue load: Maria Toma carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 7 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Maines N.Toma M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate57% (26–20) (ahead)43% (12–16)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1574 (ahead)1506
Clay-court ELO1520 (ahead)1507
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 23 matches
1st-serve points won57% (ahead)56%
Return points won49% (ahead)44%
Aces / match0.50.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 44 vs 23 matches
Break points saved51%52% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:05 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast23°C · Clear
Wind7 km/h
Humidity60%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Noemi Maines vs Maria Toma — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula R512", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/maines-vs-toma-w35-santa-margherita-di-pula-r512?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).