Liam Draxl vs James Duckworth — Jinan Round of 32

JinanR32HardWed 14 Oct · 11:00CENTER COURT · Next on
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
47%53%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Draxl L.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Duckworth J.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+27 Hard Elo edgeSupports Duckworth J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1628Supports Duckworth J.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Draxl L.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Duckworth J.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 770
Hard ELO1 687
Last 107–3
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $718K2026 $267K
ELO1 850
Hard ELO1 726
Last 105–5
Age34
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.7M2026 $779K

Liam Draxl faces James Duckworth in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. James Duckworth is the paper favourite — ranked #64, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage — but Liam Draxl arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to James Duckworth's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Draxl L.Duckworth J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate61% (36–23) (ahead)50% (25–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17701850 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16871726 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won68%75% (ahead)
Return points won40% (ahead)34%
Aces / match5.17.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 38 vs 44 matches
Break points saved55%72% (ahead)

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Starts at 11:00
  • 1This match: Draxl L. v Duckworth J.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast22°C · Clear
Wind20 km/h
Humidity42%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Draxl L.Duckworth J.
2Days since last match5 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
47Games · 7 days22 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
69Games · 14 days22 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Liam Draxl vs James Duckworth — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/draxl-vs-duckworth-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).