UMPIRY
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Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 16

Lisboa Belem Open - LisbonR16ClayWed 14 Oct · 10:00
Mathilde LolliaWTA #640 · FRA31%
VSClear favourite · Burel C.
Clara BurelWTA #214 · FRA69%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Burel C.
31%69%

Clear edge for Burel C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Lollia M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Burel C.6.7/10
Slight advantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 6 on clayAgainst the prediction · Lollia M.
Recent run5-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Lollia M.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Burel C.
Opponent formOpponent hot: 5 of last 6Against the prediction · Lollia M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 601
Clay ELO1 581
Last 107–3
Age26
EarningsCareer $39K2026 $10K
ELO1 801
Clay ELO1 647
Last 107–3
Age25
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $204K

Mathilde Lollia faces Clara Burel in the Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon round of 16 on clay. Clara Burel holds the paper edge — ranked #214.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Lollia M.Burel C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate56% (19–15)59% (16–11) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16011801 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15811647 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 33 vs 25 matches
1st-serve points won60% (ahead)59%
Return points won48%50% (ahead)
Aces / match1.61.6
ClutchLast 33 vs 25 matches
Break points saved51%59% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast20°C · Clear
Wind5 km/h
Humidity64%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Lollia M.Burel C.
1Days since last match1
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
62Games · 7 days16 — fresher
2Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
62Games · 14 days16 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/burel-vs-lollia-lisboa-belem-open-lisbon-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).