UMPIRY
EN

Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Lexington Round of 16

M15 LexingtonR16HardThu 15 Oct · 13:00
Eli StephensonUSA31%
VSClear favourite · Arseneault N.
Nicolas ArseneaultCAN69%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Arseneault N.
31%69%

Clear edge for Arseneault N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Stephenson E.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Arseneault N.3.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 52% in USA (21)Supports Arseneault N.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 506
Hard ELO1 510
Last 105–5
Age21
ELO1 564
Hard ELO1 549
Last 103–7
Age19

Eli Stephenson faces Nicolas Arseneault in the M15 Lexington round of 16 on hard. Eli Stephenson brings the better recent hard form (5 of 10).

Key context

  • Surface form: Eli Stephenson 5 of 10, Nicolas Arseneault 3 of 10 on hard recently — Eli Stephenson the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Stephenson E.Arseneault N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate56% (5–4) (ahead)33% (4–8)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15061564 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15101549 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 12 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)66%
Return points won37%37%
Aces / match3.6 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 5 vs 12 matches
Break points saved50%58% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast25°C · Overcast
Wind9 km/h
Humidity86%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Eli Stephenson vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Lexington Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/arseneault-vs-stephenson-m15-lexington-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).