UMPIRY
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Duje Markovina vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Lexington Round of 32

M15 LexingtonR32HardWed 14 Oct · 12:05
Duje MarkovinaCRO42%
VSSlight edge · Arseneault N.
Nicolas ArseneaultCAN58%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Arseneault N.
42%58%

Arseneault N. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Markovina D.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Arseneault N.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form1 of last 6 on hardAgainst the prediction · Markovina D.
Recent runLost last 5Against the prediction · Markovina D.
CountryWon 50% in USA (20)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 506
Hard ELO1 513
Last 104–6
Age19
ELO1 560
Hard ELO1 545
Last 103–7
Age19

Duje Markovina faces Nicolas Arseneault in the M15 Lexington round of 32 on hard. Duje Markovina brings the better recent hard form (3 of 8).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Markovina D.Arseneault N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate38% (5–8) (ahead)27% (3–8)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15061560 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15131545 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 8 vs 6 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)65%
Return points won27%38% (ahead)
Aces / match7.6 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 8 vs 6 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:05 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Overcast
Wind19 km/h
Humidity58%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Duje Markovina vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Lexington Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/arseneault-vs-markovina-m15-lexington-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).