Maia Ilinca Burcescu vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei

UMPIRY

W50 Stara ZagoraR32ClayWed 14 Oct · 10:05

Maia Ilinca BurcescuWTA #970 · ROU17%

VSStrong favourite · Amariei I.

Ilinca Dalina AmarieiWTA #565 · ROU83%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Amariei I.

17%83%

Clear edge for Amariei I. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Burcescu M.5.8/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Amariei I.5.4/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on clayInformative

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Burcescu M.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 550

Clay ELO1 537

Last 106–4

Age16

EarningsCareer $11K2026 $5K

ELO1 681

Clay ELO1 674

Last 107–3

Age24

EarningsCareer $116K2026 $12K

Maia Ilinca Burcescu faces Ilinca Dalina Amariei in the W50 Stara Zagora round of 32 on clay. They have met once, Maia Ilinca Burcescu leading 1–0. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Head-to-head: Maia Ilinca Burcescu leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W15 Bucharest 3 2025.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Surface form: Maia Ilinca Burcescu 6 of 10, Ilinca Dalina Amariei 7 of 10 on clay recently — Ilinca Dalina Amariei the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Burcescu M. leads 1–0

Burcescu M.May 2025W15 Bucharest 3Clay6-3 4-6 6-3

Evidence

Burcescu M.Amariei I.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate53% (10–9)72% (21–8)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15501681

Clay-court ELO15371674

Serve vs returnLast 14 vs 29 matches

1st-serve points won59%58%

Return points won51%51%

Aces / match0.90.4

ClutchLast 14 vs 29 matches

Break points saved42%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:05 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast10°C · Rain

Wind20 km/h

Humidity67%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maia Ilinca Burcescu vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei — W50 Stara Zagora Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/amariei-vs-burcescu-w50-stara-zagora-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).