UMPIRY
EN

Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez vs Carel Aubriel Ngounoue — M25 Austin Qualifying Round of 16

M25 AustinQ16QualifyingHardTue 13 Oct · 11:35
Johan Alexander Rodriguez RodriguezATP #844 · COL80%
VSStrong favourite · Rodriguez J.
Carel Aubriel NgounoueUSA20%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Rodriguez J.
80%20%

Clear edge for Rodriguez J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rodriguez J.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Aubriel Ngounoue C.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 606
Hard ELO1 541
Last 104–6
Age23
ELO1 489
Hard ELO1 489
Last 104–6
Age18

Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez faces Carel Aubriel Ngounoue in the M25 Austin qualifying round of 16 on hard. Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez brings the better recent hard form (4 of 6).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Rodriguez J.Aubriel Ngounoue C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate63% (10–6) (ahead)50% (3–3)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1606 (ahead)1489
Hard-court ELO1541 (ahead)1489
Serve vs returnLast 3 vs 2 matches
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)59%
Return points won40%42% (ahead)
Aces / match4.3 (ahead)3.5
ClutchLast 3 vs 2 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)27%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:35 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast31°C · Mainly clear
Wind19 km/h
Humidity63%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez vs Carel Aubriel Ngounoue — M25 Austin Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/ngounoue-vs-rodriguez-m25-austin-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).