Marco Trungelliti vs Thiago Monteiro — Maia Round of 32

MaiaR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
50%50%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Trungelliti M.5.9/10
Even match
Monteiro T.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
What we know
Surface+67 Clay Elo edgeFavours Trungelliti M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1627Favours Trungelliti M.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 3–2 on clayFavours Monteiro T.
Surface switchHard → ClayFavours Monteiro T.
ELO1 839
Clay ELO1 776
Last 105–5
Age36
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $617K
ELO1 777
Clay ELO1 733
Last 105–5
Age32
Height183 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $4.5M2026 $67K

Marco Trungelliti faces Thiago Monteiro in the Maia round of 32 on clay. Marco Trungelliti is the paper favourite — ranked #90, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Thiago Monteiro has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Monteiro T. leads 3–2
23

Evidence

Trungelliti M.Monteiro T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate53% (32–28)62% (32–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1839 (ahead)1777
Clay-court ELO1776 (ahead)1733
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 32 matches
1st-serve points won71%71%
Return points won37%37%
Aces / match4.9 (ahead)3.7
ClutchLast 51 vs 32 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast18°C · Partly cloudy
Wind3 km/h
Humidity83%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Trungelliti M.Monteiro T.
5Days since last match7 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days1
21 — fresherGames · 7 days35
3Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
76Games · 14 days35 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marco Trungelliti vs Thiago Monteiro — Maia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/monteiro-vs-trungelliti-maia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).