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Mao Mushika vs Tia Messerli — W35 Redding Qualifying Round of 16

W35 ReddingQ16QualifyingHardTue 13 Oct · 11:35
Mao MushikaWTA #1331 · JPN75%
VSClear favourite · Mushika M.
Tia MesserliWTA #1439 · USA25%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mushika M.
75%25%

Clear edge for Mushika M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mushika M.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Messerli T.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
CountryWon 67% in USA (33)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 570
Hard ELO1 561
Last 103–7
Age21
EarningsCareer $48K2026 $3K
ELO1 479
Hard ELO1 479
Last 104–6
Age18
EarningsCareer $3K2026 $3K

Mao Mushika faces Tia Messerli in the W35 Redding qualifying round of 16 on hard. Mao Mushika holds the paper edge — ranked #1331. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mushika M.Messerli T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate25% (1–3)38% (5–8) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1570 (ahead)1479
Hard-court ELO1561 (ahead)1479
Serve vs returnLast 4 vs 10 matches
1st-serve points won57% (ahead)52%
Return points won42%47% (ahead)
Aces / match0.5 (ahead)0.2
ClutchLast 4 vs 10 matches
Break points saved46% (ahead)33%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:35 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast22°C · Clear
Wind15 km/h
Humidity14%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mao Mushika vs Tia Messerli — W35 Redding Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/messerli-vs-mushika-w35-redding-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).