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Connie Ma vs Victoria Rodriguez — W35 Redding Round of 32

W35 ReddingR32HardTue 13 Oct · 13:05
Connie MaUSA31%
VSClear favourite · Rodriguez V.
Victoria RodriguezWTA #604 · MEX69%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rodriguez V.
31%69%

Clear edge for Rodriguez V. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ma C.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rodriguez V.5.1/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 4Informative
CountryWon 65% in USA (20)Against the prediction · Ma C.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 530
Hard ELO1 520
Last 106–4
Age23
ELO1 577
Hard ELO1 547
Last 103–7
Age31

Connie Ma faces Victoria Rodriguez in the W35 Redding round of 32 on hard. Connie Ma brings the better recent hard form (4 of 6).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ma C.Rodriguez V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate75% (3–1) (ahead)40% (8–12)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15301577 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15201547 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 4 vs 19 matches
1st-serve points won60% (ahead)53%
Return points won56% (ahead)47%
Aces / match0.30.3
ClutchLast 4 vs 19 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)40%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:05 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast23°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity11%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Connie Ma vs Victoria Rodriguez — W35 Redding Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/ma-vs-rodriguez-w35-redding-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).