UMPIRY
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Lisa Zaar vs Matilde Jorge — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32

Lisboa Belem Open - LisbonR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 10:00
Lisa ZaarWTA #293 · SWE54%
VSToss-up
Matilde JorgeWTA #245 · POR46%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
54%46%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Zaar L.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Jorge M.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+172 Clay Elo edgeSupports Zaar L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1527Supports Zaar L.
Surface switchHard → ClaySupports Zaar L.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 669
Clay ELO1 632
Last 106–4
Age26
EarningsCareer $108K2026 $37K
ELO1 661
Clay ELO1 512
Last 107–3
Age22
EarningsCareer $224K2026 $76K

Lisa Zaar faces Matilde Jorge in the Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon round of 32 on clay. Matilde Jorge holds the paper edge — ranked #245.

Key context

  • Form trend: Lisa Zaar's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Matilde Jorge's has cooled.
  • Fatigue load: Lisa Zaar carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Zaar L.Jorge M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (38–23) (ahead)54% (27–23)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1669 (ahead)1661
Clay-court ELO1632 (ahead)1512
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won57%62% (ahead)
Return points won52% (ahead)45%
Aces / match0.11.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 58 vs 47 matches
Break points saved54%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast19°C · Mainly clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity76%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Zaar L.Jorge M.
20 — fresherDays since last match19
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lisa Zaar vs Matilde Jorge — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/jorge-vs-zaar-lisboa-belem-open-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).