UMPIRY
EN

Madalena Matias vs Polona Hercog — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32

Lisboa Belem Open - LisbonR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 10:00
Madalena MatiasWTA #1376 · POR8%
VSStrong favourite · Hercog P.
Polona HercogWTA #237 · SLO92%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Hercog P.
8%92%

Clear edge for Hercog P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 13 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Matias M.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Hercog P.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Surface switchHard → ClaySupports Hercog P.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 470
Clay ELO1 496
Last 103–7
Age17
EarningsCareer $6K2026 $3K
ELO1 684
Clay ELO1 686
Last 103–7
Age35
EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $48K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Matias M.Hercog P.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–73–7
Season win rate25% (2–6)57% (26–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14701684 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14961686 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won48%64% (ahead)
Return points won41%46% (ahead)
Aces / match0.12.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 7 vs 44 matches
Break points saved38%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast18°C · Mainly clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity78%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Matias M.Hercog P.
19Days since last match20 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Madalena Matias vs Polona Hercog — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/hercog-vs-matias-lisboa-belem-open-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).