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Alastair Gray vs Spencer Johnson — M25 Austin Round of 32

M25 AustinR32HardTue 13 Oct · 13:05
Alastair Gray(1)ATP #292 · GBR70%
VSClear favourite · Gray A.
Spencer JohnsonATP #443 · USA30%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Gray A.
70%30%

Clear edge for Gray A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Gray A.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Johnson S.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Johnson S.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
CountryWon 74% in USA (65)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 709
Hard ELO1 668
Last 103–7
Age28
EarningsCareer $331K2026 $38K
ELO1 631
Hard ELO1 610
Last 106–4
Age23
EarningsCareer $63K2026 $55K

Alastair Gray faces Spencer Johnson in the M25 Austin round of 32 on hard. Alastair Gray is the paper favourite — ranked #292 — but Spencer Johnson arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 7 on hard to Alastair Gray's 1 of 7.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gray A.Johnson S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–76–4 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (22–22)78% (25–7) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1709 (ahead)1631
Hard-court ELO1668 (ahead)1610
Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 14 matches
1st-serve points won72%72%
Return points won37%37%
Aces / match7.27.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 24 vs 14 matches
Break points saved66%67% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:05 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast32°C · Partly cloudy
Wind20 km/h
Humidity55%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alastair Gray vs Spencer Johnson — M25 Austin Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/gray-vs-johnson-m25-austin-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).