Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino — Maia Round of 32

MaiaR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Pellegrino A.
71%29%

Clear edge for Pellegrino A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Pellegrino A.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Giustino L.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+299 Clay Elo edgeSupports Pellegrino A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1674Supports Pellegrino A.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headTrails 1–3 on clayInformative
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 810
Clay ELO1 769
Last 104–6
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $385K
ELO1 693
Clay ELO1 661
Last 105–5
Age35
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $143K

Andrea Pellegrino faces Lorenzo Giustino in the Maia round of 32 on clay. Andrea Pellegrino is the paper favourite — ranked #145, a roughly 300-point clay Elo advantage — but Lorenzo Giustino has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Giustino L. leads 3–1
13

Evidence

Pellegrino A.Giustino L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate57% (30–23) (ahead)47% (26–29)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1810 (ahead)1693
Clay-court ELO1769 (ahead)1661
Serve vs returnLast 35 matches each
1st-serve points won69%69%
Return points won37%38% (ahead)
Aces / match3.8 (ahead)3.7
ClutchLast 35 matches each
Break points saved62% (ahead)60%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast19°C · Partly cloudy
Wind3 km/h
Humidity80%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Pellegrino A.Giustino L.
4 — fresherDays since last match3
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
25 — fresherGames · 7 days42
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
25 — fresherGames · 14 days103
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino — Maia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/giustino-vs-pellegrino-maia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).