Hernan Casanova vs Juan Manuel La Serna

UMPIRY

Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2R32ClayTue 13 Oct · ~15:30CANCHA 3 · After 1 match

Hernan CasanovaATP #411 · ARG49%

VSToss-up

Juan Manuel La SernaATP #285 · ARG51%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

49%51%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Casanova H.4.5/10

Heavy underdog

La Serna J.5.9/10

Even match

Why

Surface+68 Clay Elo edgeSupports La Serna J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1463Supports La Serna J.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Casanova H.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 703

Clay ELO1 680

Last 104–6

Age32

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $361K2026 $26K

ELO1 678

Clay ELO1 659

Last 106–4

Age22

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $99K2026 $41K

Hernan Casanova faces Juan Manuel La Serna in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 round of 32 on clay. Juan Manuel La Serna is the paper favourite — ranked #285, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Hernan Casanova has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

Last match: Hernan Casanova dropped just 6 games past Wilson Leite.
Fatigue load: Hernan Casanova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Hernan Casanova leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Santiago 5 2025.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Casanova H. leads 1–0

Casanova H.October 2025M15 Santiago 5Clay6-0 0-6 7-6(5)

Evidence

Casanova H.La Serna J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate57% (21–16)64% (34–19)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17031678

Clay-court ELO16801659

Serve vs returnLast 18 vs 36 matches

1st-serve points won59%63%

Return points won44%44%

Aces / match0.51.7

ClutchLast 18 vs 36 matches

Break points saved54%60%

When it starts

CANCHA 3 · After 1 match · Followed by

1Olivieri G. v Ratti L.Starts at 2:00 PM
2This match: Casanova H. v La Serna J.This match
3Cigarran T. v Kicker N.Not before 5:00 PM
4Villanueva G. v Zarate C.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CANCHA 3 · ~15:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast19°C · Drizzle

Wind8 km/h

Humidity79%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hernan Casanova vs Juan Manuel La Serna — Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/casanova-vs-serna-santa-cruz-de-la-sierra-2-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).