Li Tu vs Kaylan Bigun — M25 Austin Round of 32

M25 AustinR32HardTue 13 Oct · 13:05
VSStrong favourite · Tu L.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tu L.
88%12%

Clear edge for Tu L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tu L.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Bigun K.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+196 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tu L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1488Supports Tu L.
CountryWon 55% in USA (20)Supports Tu L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 724
Hard ELO1 661
Last 102–8
Age30
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.0M2026 $48K
ELO1 494
Hard ELO1 479
Last 105–5
Age20
Height183 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $76K2026 $16K

Li Tu faces Kaylan Bigun in the M25 Austin round of 32 on hard. Li Tu is the paper favourite — ranked #527, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Kaylan Bigun arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 7 on hard to Li Tu's 2 of 7.

Key context

  • Surface form: Li Tu 2 of 7, Kaylan Bigun 3 of 7 on hard recently — Kaylan Bigun the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tu L.Bigun K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–85–5 (ahead)
Season win rate52% (15–14) (ahead)33% (7–14)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1724 (ahead)1494
Hard-court ELO1661 (ahead)1479
Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 15 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)67%
Return points won36%39% (ahead)
Aces / match7.6 (ahead)4.7
ClutchLast 26 vs 15 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:05 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast32°C · Partly cloudy
Wind20 km/h
Humidity55%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tu L.Bigun K.
14Days since last match14
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
1Matches · 14 days1
26 — fresherGames · 14 days31
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Li Tu vs Kaylan Bigun — M25 Austin Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/bigun-vs-tu-m25-austin-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).