Z. Velcz vs Blu Baker — M25 Austin Qualifying Round of 16
Z. Velcz faces Blu Baker in the M25 Austin qualifying round of 16 on hard. Blu Baker brings the better recent hard form (2 of 4).
Key context
- Last match: Z. Velcz recovered from a 0–6 opening set to beat Kyle Overmyer.
- Surface form: Z. Velcz 1 of 4, Blu Baker 2 of 4 on hard recently — Blu Baker the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Z. Velcz carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Serve flowVelcz Z. broken once · Baker B. broken once.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Velcz Z.3/4Baker B.3/4
Set 1
Match momentum
Last 30 pointsVelcz Z.Baker B.Swinging toVelcz Z.18
5Last 12 points7
7Last 3 games9
1/3Break points1/4
30 pointsNow
Break of serve
Key moments
Latest first- BREAKSet 1 · Game 4Baker B. broke serve
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 3Velcz Z. broke serve
Pre-match context
Velcz Z. came in with the higher hard rating (1544 vs 1520).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
48%52%
Umpiry Score
4.9/10/105.5
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Velcz Z.Baker B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate54% (7–6)55% (6–5) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15731604 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1544 (ahead)1520
Serve vs returnLast 8 vs 10 matches
1st-serve points won66%66%
Return points won43% (ahead)42%
Aces / match3.3 (ahead)0.5
ClutchLast 8 vs 10 matches
Break points saved53% (ahead)40%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Z. Velcz vs Blu Baker — M25 Austin Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/baker-vs-velcz-m25-austin-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).