Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli — Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Round of 32
Valerio Aboian faces Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 round of 32 on clay. Franco Roncadelli is the paper favourite — ranked #265, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage — but Valerio Aboian has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Valerio Aboian brings the better recent clay form (6 of 9).
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Valerio Aboian 17 games in 14 days, Franco Roncadelli 39.
- Under pressure: Franco Roncadelli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 41 vs Valerio Aboian's 12).
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at M25 Chacabuco 1 2025.
Live Win Probability
i—Aboian V.
—Roncadelli F.
Valerio AboianFranco Roncadelli
Serve flowRoncadelli F. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Aboian V.Roncadelli F.1/1
Set 1
Match momentumLive
Too early to read the momentum
Pre-match context
Roncadelli F. came in with the higher clay rating (1683 vs 1662); Aboian V. with the better recent record (7–3 vs 3–7) and the head-to-head lead (2–1).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
52%48%
Umpiry Score
5.9/10/105.9
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
3 meetings · Aboian V. leads 2–121
- Aboian V.April 2025M25 Chacabuco 1Clay6-4 5-7 6-2
- Roncadelli F.November 2022M15 Santa Cruz 2Clay7-5 6-2
- Aboian V.March 2022M25 Medellin 1Clay7-6(7) 6-3
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Aboian V.Roncadelli F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate59% (35–24) (ahead)58% (31–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16791687 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16621683 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 30 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)61%
Return points won42%45% (ahead)
Aces / match4.8 (ahead)0.8
ClutchLast 47 vs 30 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)58%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli — Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/aboian-vs-roncadelli-santa-cruz-de-la-sierra-2-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).