J. Vrba vs Daniel Siniakov — San Gregorio di Catania Qualifying Round of 16

San Gregorio di CataniaQ16QualifyingClayMon 12 Oct · 10:00
VSSlight edge · Siniakov D.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Siniakov D.
34%66%

Siniakov D. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Vrba J.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Siniakov D.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on clayInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Vrba J.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 542
Clay ELO1 520
Last 107–3
Age21
ELO1 636
Clay ELO1 593
Last 105–5
Age23

J. Vrba faces Daniel Siniakov in the San Gregorio di Catania qualifying round of 16 on clay.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Vrba J.Siniakov D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate68% (13–6) (ahead)52% (17–16)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15421636 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15201593 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 14 vs 23 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)68%
Return points won38%41% (ahead)
Aces / match4.9 (ahead)3.9
ClutchLast 14 vs 23 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast20°C · Overcast
Wind4 km/h
Humidity69%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Vrba J.Siniakov D.
20 — fresherDays since last match6
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
0 — fresherGames · 7 days58
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days2
0 — fresherGames · 14 days58
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "J. Vrba vs Daniel Siniakov — San Gregorio di Catania Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/siniakov-vs-vrba-san-gregorio-di-catania-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).