UMPIRY
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Samuele Pieri vs Daniel Rincon — Olbia Round of 32

OlbiaR32HardMon 12 Oct · 11:00
Samuele PieriATP #320 · ITA28%
VSClear favourite · Rincon D.
Daniel RinconATP #245 · ESP72%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rincon D.
28%72%

Clear edge for Rincon D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Pieri S.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rincon D.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Surface switchClay → HardSupports Rincon D.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Rincon D.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 663
Hard ELO1 490
Last 106–4
Age24
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $61K2026 $21K
ELO1 745
Hard ELO1 622
Last 105–5
Age23
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $566K2026 $69K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pieri S.Rincon D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate54% (29–25) (ahead)53% (25–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16631745 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO14901622 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 36 vs 28 matches
1st-serve points won67%68% (ahead)
Return points won42% (ahead)40%
Aces / match2.34.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 36 vs 28 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)60%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-slow
Forecast24°C · Partly cloudy
Wind17 km/h
Humidity52%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Pieri S.Rincon D.
5 — fresherDays since last match3
2Matches · 7 days2
33 — fresherGames · 7 days40
6Matches · 14 days5 — fresher
138Games · 14 days96 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Samuele Pieri vs Daniel Rincon — Olbia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/pieri-vs-rincon-olbia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).