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Luka Pavlovic vs Kangyuan Shi — Jinan Qualifying Round of 16

JinanQ16QualifyingHardMon 12 Oct · 13:00COURT 2 · Next on
Luka PavlovicATP #207 · FRA90%
VSStrong favourite · Pavlovic L.
Kangyuan ShiCHN10%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Pavlovic L.
90%10%

Clear edge for Pavlovic L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 10 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Pavlovic L.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Shi K.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Shi K.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 742
Hard ELO1 528
Last 104–6
Age26
ELO1 479
Hard ELO1 480
Last 101–5
Age18

Luka Pavlovic faces Kangyuan Shi in the Jinan qualifying round of 16 on hard. Luka Pavlovic brings the better recent hard form (2 of 6).

Key context

  • Surface form: Luka Pavlovic 2 of 6, Kangyuan Shi 1 of 6 on hard recently — Luka Pavlovic the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Luka Pavlovic carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pavlovic L.Shi K.
FormLast 10 vs 6 matches · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)1–5
Season win rate51% (26–25) (ahead)50% (1–1)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1742 (ahead)1479
Hard-court ELO1528 (ahead)1480
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 1 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)70%
Return points won34%47% (ahead)
Aces / match10.8 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 37 vs 1 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)0%

When it starts

COURT 2 · Next on · Starts at 13:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 2 · 13:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast25°C · Overcast
Wind7 km/h
Humidity42%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luka Pavlovic vs Kangyuan Shi — Jinan Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/pavlovic-vs-shi-jinan-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).