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Sumit Nagal vs Henrique Rocha — Maia Round of 32

MaiaR32ClayMon 12 Oct · 14:00CENTER COURT · After 1 match
Sumit NagalATP #253 · IND30%
VSClear favourite · Rocha H.
Henrique Rocha(2)ATP #106 · POR70%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rocha H.
30%70%

Clear edge for Rocha H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Nagal S.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Rocha H.6.9/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+129 Clay Elo edgeSupports Rocha H.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1676Supports Rocha H.
Recent run5-match win streakSupports Rocha H.
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Nagal S.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Nagal S.
ELO1 721
Clay ELO1 690
Last 103–7
Age29
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $67K
ELO1 799
Clay ELO1 694
Last 108–2
Age22
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $966K2026 $280K

Sumit Nagal faces Henrique Rocha in the Maia round of 32 on clay. Henrique Rocha holds the paper edge — ranked #106, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Freshness: Sumit Nagal comes in with 5 days of rest and 18 games in 14d, vs Henrique Rocha's 8 and 85.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Henrique Rocha has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 45 vs 4).
  • Win streak: Henrique Rocha arrives on a 5-match winning run.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Nagal S.Rocha H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–78–2 (ahead)
Season win rate44% (23–29)60% (35–23) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17211799 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16901694 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won64%69% (ahead)
Return points won39%40% (ahead)
Aces / match1.83.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 26 vs 45 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)59%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Not before 14:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 14:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast21°C · Partly cloudy
Wind10 km/h
Humidity68%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Nagal S.Rocha H.
5Days since last match8 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
18Games · 7 days0 — fresher
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
18 — fresherGames · 14 days85
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sumit Nagal vs Henrique Rocha — Maia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/nagal-vs-rocha-maia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).