Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller | Jinan Round of 32

UMPIRY

JinanR32HardTue 13 Oct · 10:00

Tomas Machac(6)ATP #75 · CZE71%

VSClear favourite · Machac T.

Alexandre MullerATP #133 · FRA29%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Machac T.

71%29%

Clear edge for Machac T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Machac T.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Muller A.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+199 Hard Elo edgeSupports Machac T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1866Supports Machac T.

Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 956

Hard ELO1 818

Last 103–7

Age26

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $862K

ELO1 832

Hard ELO1 714

Last 106–4

Age29

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $4.4M2026 $557K

Tomas Machac faces Alexandre Muller in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Tomas Machac is the paper favourite — ranked #75, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Alexandre Muller arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Tomas Machac's 2 of 8. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Tomas Machac 123 games in 14 days, Alexandre Muller 78.
Form trend: Alexandre Muller's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Tomas Machac's has cooled.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Cassis CH 2023.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Machac T. and Muller A. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Machac T. went 1–4 (20%) against them, Muller A. 0–5 (0%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

1–420%Machac T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–50%Muller A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–11Sets1–11

68–93Games37–67

2–0Tiebreaks0–0

0–2Deciding sets0–0

vs Zverev A.#2L4-6 2-6 2-6Roland Garros · clayL3-6 6-4 3-6 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Musetti L.#25L7-5 4-6 2-6 7-5 2-6Australian Open · hardL2-6 4-6Athens · hard
vs Tsitsipas S.#43W6-4 3-6 7-6 7-6Australian Open · hardL2-6 0-3Roland Garros · clay

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vs Moutet C.#71L0-6 6-1 4-6Miami Masters · hardL4-6 1-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Molcan A.#84L3-6 2-6Beijing · hardL4-6 4-6FRA vs SVK · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Machac T.September 2023Cassis CHHard3-6 6-3 7-6
Muller A.February 2023DohaHard4-6 7-6 6-1

Evidence

Machac T.Muller A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–76–4

Season win rate50% (16–16)42% (18–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19561832

Hard-court ELO18181714

Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 35 matches

1st-serve points won68%68%

Return points won35%35%

Aces / match5.03.6

ClutchLast 31 vs 35 matches

Break points saved58%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast19°C · Drizzle

Wind15 km/h

Humidity73%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Machac T.Muller A.

2Days since last match5

2Matches · 7 days2

51Games · 7 days44

5Matches · 14 days4

123Games · 14 days78

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/machac-vs-muller-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).