Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Jade | Roanne Round of 32

UMPIRY

RoanneR32HardMon 12 Oct · 18:30CENTRAL A.VACHERESSE · After 2 matches

Hugo Gaston(1)ATP #89 · FRA68%

VSClear favourite · Gaston H.

Daniel JadeATP #621 · FRA32%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Gaston H.

68%32%

Clear edge for Gaston H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Gaston H.6.2/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Jade D.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardSupports Gaston H.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 837

Hard ELO1 713

Last 106–4

Age26

EarningsCareer $4.2M2026 $566K

ELO1 549

Hard ELO1 513

Last 107–3

Age17

EarningsCareer $58K2026 $53K

Hugo Gaston faces Daniel Jade in the Roanne round of 32 on hard. Hugo Gaston holds the paper edge — ranked #89. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Hugo Gaston comes in with 6 days of rest and 55 games in 14d, vs Daniel Jade's 19 and 0.
Surface form: Hugo Gaston 6 of 10, Daniel Jade 7 of 10 on hard recently — Daniel Jade the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gaston H.Jade D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate53% (32–28)56% (14–11)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18371549

Hard-court ELO17131513

Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won68%68%

Return points won40%38%

Aces / match2.53.1

ClutchLast 47 vs 20 matches

Break points saved59%57%

When it starts

CENTRAL A.VACHERESSE · After 2 matches · Not before 18:30

1Blanchet U. v De Jonge D.Starts at 10:30
2Gueymard Wayenburg S. v Broady L.Not before 16:30
3This match: Gaston H. v Jade D.This match
4Grenier H. v Bonzi B.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTRAL A.VACHERESSE · 18:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast19°C · Clear

Wind5 km/h

Humidity37%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Gaston H.Jade D.

6Days since last match19

1Matches · 7 days0

22Games · 7 days0

2Matches · 14 days0

55Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Jade — Roanne Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/gaston-vs-jade-roanne-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).