Aziz Dougaz vs Damir Dzumhur — Olbia Round of 32
Aziz Dougaz faces Damir Dzumhur in the Olbia round of 32 on hard. Damir Dzumhur is the paper favourite — ranked #103, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Aziz Dougaz arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on hard to Damir Dzumhur's 2 of 6.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Damir Dzumhur has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 63 vs 8).
- Surface form: Aziz Dougaz 4 of 6, Damir Dzumhur 2 of 6 on hard recently — Aziz Dougaz the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Aziz Dougaz carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Live Win Probability
i—Dougaz A.
—Dzumhur D.
Aziz DougazDamir Dzumhur
Serve flowDougaz A. unbroken · Dzumhur D. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Dougaz A.1/1Dzumhur D.1/1
Set 1
Match momentum
Last 18 pointsDougaz A.Dzumhur D.Swinging toDougaz A.27
4Last 12 points8
0/0Break points0/2
30 pointsNow
Break of serve
Pre-match context
Dougaz A. came in with the higher hard rating (1713 vs 1644) and the better recent record (7–3 vs 4–6).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
60%40%
Umpiry Score
5.5/10/106.3
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
1 shared · last 12 monthsDougaz A. and Dzumhur D. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Dougaz A. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Dzumhur D. 1–0 (100%).
0–10%Dougaz A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Dzumhur D. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
1–2Sets2–1
13–16Games19–15
0–0Tiebreaks1–1
0–1Deciding sets1–0
Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.
vs Cina F.#147L3-6 6-4 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardW6-7 6-2 7-6Brussels · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Dougaz A.Dzumhur D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate68% (27–13) (ahead)38% (18–29)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17581797 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1713 (ahead)1644
Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)62%
Return points won36%39% (ahead)
Aces / match6.8 (ahead)1.4
ClutchLast 25 vs 35 matches
Break points saved70% (ahead)55%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Aziz Dougaz vs Damir Dzumhur — Olbia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/dougaz-vs-dzumhur-olbia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).