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Pedro Martinez vs Matej Dodig — Maia Round of 32

MaiaR32ClayMon 12 Oct · 11:00
Pedro Martinez(4)ATP #130 · ESP35%
VSSlight edge · Dodig M.
Matej DodigATP #174 · CRO65%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Dodig M.
35%65%

Dodig M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Martinez P.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Dodig M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+121 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Martinez P.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1580Against the prediction · Martinez P.
Recent run5-match win streakSupports Dodig M.
Surface switchHard → ClaySupports Dodig M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Martinez P.
ELO1 785
Clay ELO1 714
Last 107–3
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.1M2026 $396K
ELO1 776
Clay ELO1 712
Last 108–2
Age21
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $347K2026 $154K

Pedro Martinez faces Matej Dodig in the Maia round of 32 on clay. Pedro Martinez is the paper favourite — ranked #130, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage — but Matej Dodig arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Pedro Martinez's 4 of 6.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Matej Dodig carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Win streak: Matej Dodig arrives on a 5-match winning run.
  • Surface form: Pedro Martinez 4 of 6, Matej Dodig 5 of 6 on clay recently — Matej Dodig the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Martinez P.Dodig M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–38–2 (ahead)
Season win rate56% (35–28)64% (36–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1785 (ahead)1776
Clay-court ELO1714 (ahead)1712
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won66%72% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)38%
Aces / match1.45.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 50 vs 40 matches
Break points saved55%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast18°C · Mainly clear
Wind0 km/h
Humidity84%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Martinez P.Dodig M.
1Days since last match1
4Matches · 7 days4
89Games · 7 days75 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days4
89Games · 14 days75 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Pedro Martinez vs Matej Dodig — Maia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/dodig-vs-martinez-maia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).