Lucas Andrade Da Silva vs Matteo Covato — M15 Quito Semi-final

M15 QuitoSemi-finalClaySat 10 Oct · 12:05
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Andrade da Silva L.
80%20%

Clear edge for Andrade da Silva L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Andrade da Silva L.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Covato M.3.6/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on claySupports Andrade da Silva L.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 595
Clay ELO1 568
Last 106–4
Age21
EarningsCareer $17K2026 $8K
ELO1 447
Clay ELO1 491
Last 104–6
Age21
EarningsCareer $32K2026 $8K

Lucas Andrade Da Silva faces Matteo Covato in the M15 Quito semi-final on clay. Matteo Covato is the paper favourite — ranked #742 — but Lucas Andrade Da Silva arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on clay to Matteo Covato's 3 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Andrade da Silva L.Covato M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate70% (16–7) (ahead)21% (6–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1595 (ahead)1447
Clay-court ELO1568 (ahead)1491
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 25 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)65%
Return points won40% (ahead)33%
Aces / match6.6 (ahead)5.6
ClutchLast 10 vs 25 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:05 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast19°C · Drizzle
Wind8 km/h
Humidity56%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lucas Andrade Da Silva vs Matteo Covato — M15 Quito Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/covato-vs-silva-m15-quito-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).