Astra Sharma vs Bella Bergkvist Larsson

UMPIRY

W50 LexingtonQuarter-finalHardFri 9 Oct · 10:30

Astra SharmaWTA #1181 · AUS86%

VSStrong favourite · Sharma A.

Bella Bergkvist LarssonSWE14%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Sharma A.

86%14%

Clear edge for Sharma A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Sharma A.3.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Bergkvist Larsson B.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form0 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 11Informative

CountryWon 62% in USA (65)Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 653

Hard ELO1 571

Last 109–1

Age31

ELO1 515

Hard ELO1 521

Last 108–2

Age20

Astra Sharma faces Bella Bergkvist Larsson in the W50 Lexington quarter-final on hard. Astra Sharma brings the better recent hard form (7 of 7).

Key context

Last match: Astra Sharma advanced when Cadence Brace retired.
Last match: Bella Bergkvist Larsson advanced when Jane Dunyon retired.
Fatigue load: Astra Sharma carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sharma A.Bergkvist Larsson B.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–18–2

Season win rate63% (12–7)100% (4–0)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16531515

Hard-court ELO15711521

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast18°C · Clear

Wind11 km/h

Humidity47%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Astra Sharma vs Bella Bergkvist Larsson — W50 Lexington Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/larsson-vs-sharma-w50-lexington-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).