Daniel Jade vs Adrien Gobat | M15 Rodez Quarter-final

UMPIRY

M15 RodezQuarter-finalHardFri 9 Oct · 17:35

Daniel Jade(4)ATP #621 · FRA40%

VSSlight edge · Gobat A.

Adrien GobatFRA60%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Gobat A.

40%60%

Gobat A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Jade D.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Gobat A.4.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form2 of last 6 on hardAgainst the prediction · Jade D.

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 553

Hard ELO1 516

Last 108–2

Age17

ELO1 617

Hard ELO1 579

Last 104–6

Age25

Daniel Jade faces Adrien Gobat in the M15 Rodez quarter-final on hard. Daniel Jade brings the better recent hard form (5 of 7).

Key context

Last match: Adrien Gobat edged Timeo Trufelli in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 6–4).
Surface form: Daniel Jade 5 of 7, Adrien Gobat 3 of 7 on hard recently — Daniel Jade the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Adrien Gobat carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jade D.Gobat A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–24–6

Season win rate58% (14–10)40% (2–3)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15531617

Hard-court ELO15161579

Serve vs returnLast 9 vs 1 matches

1st-serve points won66%65%

Return points won32%36%

Aces / match1.82.0

ClutchLast 9 vs 1 matches

Break points saved60%33%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:35 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast10°C · Overcast

Wind18 km/h

Humidity69%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniel Jade vs Adrien Gobat — M15 Rodez Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/gobat-vs-jade-m15-rodez-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).