Zhuoxuan Bai vs Kyoka Okamura | Suzhou Quarter-final

UMPIRY

SuzhouQuarter-finalHardFri 9 Oct · 10:00Center Court · Next on

Zhuoxuan BaiWTA #233 · CHN75%

VSClear favourite · Bai Z.

Kyoka OkamuraWTA #303 · JPN25%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bai Z.

75%25%

Clear edge for Bai Z. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bai Z.5.9/10

Even match

Okamura K.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+177 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bai Z.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1584Supports Bai Z.

Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Okamura K.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Bai Z.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Bai Z.

ELO1 756

Hard ELO1 703

Last 106–4

Age23

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $793K2026 $204K

ELO1 640

Hard ELO1 591

Last 108–2

Age31

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $489K2026 $28K

Zhuoxuan Bai faces Kyoka Okamura in the Suzhou quarter-final on hard. Zhuoxuan Bai is the paper favourite — ranked #233, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage — but Kyoka Okamura arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Zhuoxuan Bai's 6 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Zhuoxuan Bai 106 games in 14 days, Kyoka Okamura 172.
Last match: Zhuoxuan Bai dropped the opening set before beating Emerson Jones 1–6 6–3 7–6.
Head-to-head: Zhuoxuan Bai leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W100 Takasaki 2 2023.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Bai Z. leads 1–0

Bai Z.November 2023W100 Takasaki 2Hard6-3 6-3

Evidence

Bai Z.Okamura K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–48–2

Season win rate66% (25–13)53% (24–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17561640

Hard-court ELO17031591

Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 31 matches

1st-serve points won64%61%

Return points won48%46%

Aces / match1.91.7

ClutchLast 25 vs 31 matches

Break points saved56%47%

When it starts

Center Court · Next on · Starting at 10:00 AM

1This match: Bai Z. v Okamura K.This match
2Sasnovich A. v Kalieva E.Followed by
3Falei A. v Sramkova R.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 10:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast23°C · Clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity59%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bai Z.Okamura K.

0Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days6

57Games · 7 days154

5Matches · 14 days7

106Games · 14 days172

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Zhuoxuan Bai vs Kyoka Okamura — Suzhou Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/bai-vs-okamura-suzhou-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).