Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Antofagasta Quarter-final

AntofagastaQuarter-finalClayFri 9 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Pucinelli de Almeida M.
68%32%

Clear edge for Pucinelli de Almeida M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Pucinelli de Almeida M.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Reis Da Silva J.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+66 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Reis Da Silva J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1486Against the prediction · Reis Da Silva J.
Head-to-headLeads 4–0 on claySupports Pucinelli de Almeida M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Reis Da Silva J.
Recent run2-match win streakBoth players
ELO1 748
Clay ELO1 723
Last 106–4
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $367K2026 $32K
ELO1 698
Clay ELO1 680
Last 107–3
Age26
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $453K2026 $156K

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva in the Antofagasta quarter-final on clay. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is the paper favourite — ranked #230, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has won 4 of their 5 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Pucinelli de Almeida M. leads 4–1
41

Clay: Pucinelli de Almeida M. leads 4–0 · Hard: Reis Da Silva J. leads 1–0

Evidence

Pucinelli de Almeida M.Reis Da Silva J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate66% (31–16) (ahead)48% (23–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1748 (ahead)1698
Clay-court ELO1723 (ahead)1680
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 24 matches
1st-serve points won63%66% (ahead)
Return points won48% (ahead)38%
Aces / match2.22.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 6 vs 24 matches
Break points saved55%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast21°C · Mainly clear
Wind7 km/h
Humidity64%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Pucinelli de Almeida M.Reis Da Silva J.
1Days since last match1
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
64Games · 7 days28 — fresher
5Matches · 14 days4 — fresher
116Games · 14 days75 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Antofagasta Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/almeida-vs-silva-antofagasta-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).