Daniel Rincon vs Pedro Martinez — Villena Round of 16

VillenaR16HardThu 8 Oct · 18:30PISTA CARLOS ALCARAZ · After 3 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rincon D.5.9/10
Even match
Martinez P.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+38 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Martinez P.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1580Against the prediction · Martinez P.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Rincon D.
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 749
Hard ELO1 626
Last 105–5
Age23
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $566K2026 $69K
ELO1 780
Hard ELO1 625
Last 106–4
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.1M2026 $396K

Daniel Rincon faces Pedro Martinez in the Villena round of 16 on hard. Pedro Martinez holds the paper edge — ranked #130, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on hard.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Rincon D.Martinez P.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate54% (25–21)55% (33–27) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17491780 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1626 (ahead)1625
Serve vs returnLast 13 vs 32 matches
1st-serve points won64%66% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)40%
Aces / match2.9 (ahead)1.6
ClutchLast 13 vs 32 matches
Break points saved54%56% (ahead)

When it starts

PISTA CARLOS ALCARAZ · After 3 matches · Not before 18:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

PISTA CARLOS ALCARAZ · 18:30 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast23°C · Clear
Wind12 km/h
Humidity34%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Rincon D.Martinez P.
3 — fresherDays since last match2
3Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
60Games · 7 days33 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
74Games · 14 days33 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniel Rincon vs Pedro Martinez — Villena Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/martinez-vs-rincon-villena-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).