Sophia Ksandinov vs Maria Kalyakina | W15 Chisinau Round of 16

UMPIRY

W15 ChisinauR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 10:05

Sophia KsandinovWTA #1305 · GER47%

VSToss-up

Maria Kalyakina(2)WTA #605 · RUS53%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

47%53%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ksandinov S.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Kalyakina M.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

What we know

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 501

Clay ELO1 514

Last 107–3

Age19

EarningsCareer $8K2026 $2K

ELO1 530

Clay ELO1 487

Last 104–6

Age20

EarningsCareer $27K2026 $9K

Sophia Ksandinov faces Maria Kalyakina in the W15 Chisinau round of 16 on clay. Maria Kalyakina holds the paper edge — ranked #605.

Key context

Last match: Sophia Ksandinov advanced when Romina Hincu retired.
Last match: Maria Kalyakina dropped just 5 games past Maria Pares Bergnes De Las Casas.
Fatigue load: Sophia Ksandinov carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ksandinov S.Kalyakina M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–34–6

Season win rate60% (9–6)47% (18–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15011530

Clay-court ELO15141487

Serve vs returnLast 3 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won56%56%

Return points won44%47%

Aces / match1.01.1

ClutchLast 3 vs 20 matches

Break points saved64%47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:05 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast17°C · Overcast

Wind10 km/h

Humidity54%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sophia Ksandinov vs Maria Kalyakina — W15 Chisinau Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/kalyakina-vs-ksandinov-w15-chisinau-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).