UMPIRY

Matteo Covato vs M. Mbithi — M15 Quito Round of 16

M15 QuitoR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 10:30
Matteo Covato(6)ATP #742 · ITA27%
VSClear favourite · Mbithi M.
M. MbithiUSA73%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mbithi M.
27%73%

Clear edge for Mbithi M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Covato M.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Mbithi M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 5Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 436
Clay ELO1 482
Last 102–8
Age21
ELO1 579
Clay ELO1 466
Last 105–5
Age28

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Covato M.Mbithi M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–85–5 (ahead)
Season win rate15% (4–22)56% (5–4) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14361579 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO1482 (ahead)1466

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast19°C · Clear
Wind6 km/h
Humidity49%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matteo Covato vs M. Mbithi — M15 Quito Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/covato-vs-mbithi-m15-quito-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).