Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lautaro Midon

UMPIRY

AntofagastaR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 12:30CANCHA 7 · Next on

Joaquin Aguilar CardozoATP #342 · URU57%

VSToss-up

Lautaro Midon(7)ATP #206 · ARG43%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Aguilar Cardozo J.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Midon L.7.3/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+223 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Midon L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1526Against the prediction · Midon L.

Recent run3-match win streakSupports Aguilar Cardozo J.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Midon L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Midon L.

ELO1 722

Clay ELO1 714

Last 109–1

Age21

EarningsCareer $58K2026 $15K

ELO1 745

Clay ELO1 728

Last 106–4

Age22

EarningsCareer $248K2026 $126K

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo faces Lautaro Midon in the Antofagasta round of 16 on clay. Lautaro Midon is the paper favourite — ranked #206, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 220-point clay Elo advantage — but Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Lautaro Midon's 4 of 6.

Key context

Freshness: Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo comes in with 2 days of rest and 107 games in 14d, vs Lautaro Midon's 2 and 81.
Last match: Lautaro Midon handed Jose Pereira a third-set bagel in a 6–3 4–6 6–0 win.
Head-to-head: Lautaro Midon leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at M25 Lujan 1 2025.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Midon L. leads 2–0

Midon L.March 2025M25 Lujan 1Clay2-6 7-6(1) 6-2
Midon L.September 2024M15 Asuncion 1Clay6-3 6-2

Evidence

Aguilar Cardozo J.Midon L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–16–4

Season win rate77% (40–12)60% (33–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17221745

Clay-court ELO17141728

Serve vs returnLast 20 vs 33 matches

1st-serve points won65%64%

Return points won48%42%

Aces / match0.93.5

ClutchLast 20 vs 33 matches

Break points saved59%55%

When it starts

CANCHA 7 · Next on · Followed by

1This match: Aguilar Cardozo J. v Midon L.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CANCHA 7 · 12:30 local

SurfaceClay · slow

Forecast21°C · Overcast

Wind14 km/h

Humidity66%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Aguilar Cardozo J.Midon L.

2Days since last match2

3Matches · 7 days2

70Games · 7 days43

5Matches · 14 days4

107Games · 14 days81

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Lautaro Midon — Antofagasta Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/cardozo-vs-midon-antofagasta-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).