Sara Cakarevic vs Lisa Zaar — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16

W35 Santa Margherita di PulaR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 09:35
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Zaar L.
29%71%

Clear edge for Zaar L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cakarevic S.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Zaar L.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+256 Clay Elo edgeSupports Zaar L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1527Supports Zaar L.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Cakarevic S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 591
Clay ELO1 576
Last 106–4
Age29
EarningsCareer $159K2026 $7K
ELO1 660
Clay ELO1 622
Last 106–4
Age26
EarningsCareer $108K2026 $37K

Sara Cakarevic faces Lisa Zaar in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula round of 16 on clay. Lisa Zaar holds the paper edge — ranked #298, a roughly 260-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cakarevic S.Zaar L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate52% (15–14)61% (35–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15911660 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15761622 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 17 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won58% (ahead)56%
Return points won44%53% (ahead)
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)0.1
ClutchLast 17 vs 41 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:35 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast26°C · Mainly clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity57%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sara Cakarevic vs Lisa Zaar — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/cakarevic-vs-zaar-w35-santa-margherita-di-pula-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).