Arina Arifullina vs Valeria Savinykh — W35 Lagos Round of 16
Arina Arifullina faces Valeria Savinykh in the W35 Lagos round of 16 on hard. Valeria Savinykh is the paper favourite — ranked #652 — but Arina Arifullina arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Valeria Savinykh's 4 of 10.
Key context
- Last match: Arina Arifullina lost just 0 games in a 6–0 6–0 demolition of Baylen Brown.
- Surface form: Arina Arifullina 6 of 10, Valeria Savinykh 4 of 10 on hard recently — Arina Arifullina the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Valeria Savinykh carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Serve flowArifullina A. broken 5 times · Savinykh V. broken 3 times.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Arifullina A.2/7Savinykh V.3/6
Set 1Set 2
Match momentum
Last 30 pointsArifullina A.Savinykh V.Swinging toArifullina A.48
8Last 12 points4
17Last 3 games13
3/5Break points5/10
30 pointsNow
Break of serve
Key moments
Latest first- BREAKSet 2 · Game 5Arifullina A. broke serve
- HOLD 0Set 2 · Game 3Savinykh V. held to love
- BREAKSet 2 · Game 2Savinykh V. broke serve
- BREAKSet 2 · Game 1Arifullina A. broke serve
- SETSet 1 · Game 7Savinykh V. took the set
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 7Savinykh V. broke serve
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 5Savinykh V. broke serve
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 3Savinykh V. broke serve
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 2Arifullina A. broke serve
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 1Savinykh V. broke serve
Pre-match context
Savinykh V. came in with the higher hard rating (1563 vs 1537); Arifullina A. with the better recent record (6–4 vs 4–6).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
30%70%
Umpiry Score
5.6/10/104.3
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Arifullina A.Savinykh V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate62% (18–11) (ahead)50% (15–15)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15261608 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15371563 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 12 vs 22 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)59%
Return points won47% (ahead)44%
Aces / match1.3 (ahead)1.0
ClutchLast 12 vs 22 matches
Break points saved50%51% (ahead)
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Arina Arifullina vs Valeria Savinykh — W35 Lagos Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/arifullina-vs-savinykh-w35-lagos-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).