UMPIRY

Maria Andrienko vs Natalija Senic — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16

W35 Santa Margherita di PulaR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 11:05
Maria AndrienkoWTA #905 · RUS23%
VSClear favourite · Senic N.
Natalija Senic(8)WTA #408 · SRB77%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Senic N.
23%77%

Clear edge for Senic N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Andrienko M.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Senic N.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 557
Clay ELO1 548
Last 105–5
Age22
EarningsCareer $21K2026 $6K
ELO1 666
Clay ELO1 664
Last 104–6
Age23
EarningsCareer $88K2026 $14K

Maria Andrienko faces Natalija Senic in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula round of 16 on clay. Natalija Senic holds the paper edge — ranked #408. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Maria Andrienko 5 of 10, Natalija Senic 4 of 10 on clay recently — Maria Andrienko the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Andrienko M.Senic N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate65% (22–12) (ahead)54% (21–18)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15571666 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15481664 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 9 vs 29 matches
1st-serve points won56%59% (ahead)
Return points won52% (ahead)51%
Aces / match0.30.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 9 vs 29 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:05 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast26°C · Partly cloudy
Wind6 km/h
Humidity64%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maria Andrienko vs Natalija Senic — W35 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/andrienko-vs-senic-w35-santa-margherita-di-pula-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).