Bu Yunchaokete vs Michael ZhengHangzhou Round of 32

Hangzhou · ATP · Round of 32
#111ATP
1709ELO
1644Hard ELO
$326kYTD
$2.0MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLWLW
Sets
Wednesday, 23 September 2026 ·
hard
#92ATP
1695ELO
1672Hard ELO
$668kYTD
$860kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWLWW
Yunchaokete B.
vs
Zheng M.

Bu Yunchaokete faces Michael Zheng in the Hangzhou round of 32 on hard. Michael Zheng holds the paper edge — ranked #92, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Yunchaokete B.43%
Zheng M.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1644
Surface ELO
5.3+28 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1709
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1695
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

16 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
58%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
72%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.3
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Yunchaokete B.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Zheng M.

Zheng M.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Yunchaokete B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
69

Yunchaokete B.: 18 days rest · Zheng M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-09-04US OpenR64hardMichael Zheng3-6 6-2 2-6 3-6

Draw