Thomas Faurel vs Mark Lajal | St. Tropez Round of 16

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

FRAWC

Thomas Faurel

#340ATP

1459ELO

1353Hard ELO

$142kYTD

$196kCAREER

20 yrs

Last 10

WLWWLWWLLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 23 September 2026 · 10:00

hard

EST7

Mark Lajal

#143ATP

1589ELO

1556Hard ELO

$186kYTD

$744kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWWLWWW

Faurel T.

Lajal M.

Thomas Faurel faces Mark Lajal in the St. Tropez round of 16 on hard. Mark Lajal holds the paper edge — ranked #143, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Faurel T.33%

Lajal M.67%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lajal M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Thomas Faurel 0 games in 14 days, Mark Lajal 132.
Surface form: Both 3 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

1 common opponents · Faurel T. 1–0 · Lajal M. 1–0 · small sample

Both won · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Faurel T.

4.4

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Lajal M.

7.3

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.5Hard Elo 1353

Surface ELO

7.5+203 Hard Elo edge

3.4Overall Elo 1459

ELO gap

6.6Overall Elo 1588

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.14 of last 8 on hard

Surface form

7.88 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Faurel T.Lajal M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

67%

60%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

64%

74%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

55%

48%

Service points won·Even

61%

64%

Return points won·Even

40%

36%

Break points saved·Clear edge

58%

70%

Aces / match·Dominant

2.3

6.4

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.2

3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Faurel T.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Lajal M.

Lajal M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Faurel T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Faurel T.Lajal M.

Freshness·Dominant

100

Faurel T.: 18 days rest · Lajal M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CClear

Wind 18 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Thomas Faurel vs Mark Lajal — St. Tropez Round of 16