Keegan Smith vs Dylan Dietrich — San Diego 2 Round of 16

San Diego 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Keegan Smith
USA3
Keegan Smith
#194ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
$108kYTD
$255kCAREER
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWWLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 23 September 2026 ·
hard
SUI
Dylan Dietrich
#409ATP
$29kYTD
$51kCAREER
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWLW
Smith K.
vs
Dietrich D.

Keegan Smith faces Dylan Dietrich in the San Diego 2 round of 16 on hard. Keegan Smith holds the paper edge — ranked #194.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Smith K.53%
Dietrich D.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Smith K.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Dietrich D.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.4Won 74% in USA (84)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
Smith K.Dietrich D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
3.8
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith K.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Dietrich D.

Dietrich D.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Smith K.Dietrich D.
Freshness·Clear edge
71
89

Smith K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d) · Dietrich D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CDrizzle
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw