Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Yi ZhouChengdu Round of 32

Chengdu · ATP · Round of 32
#53ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$2.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 23 September 2026 ·
hard
CHNWC
#273ATP
1456ELO
1445Hard ELO
$126kYTD
$465kCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLWLWL
Cerundolo J.
vs
Zhou Y.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Yi Zhou in the Chengdu round of 32 on hard. Juan Manuel Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #53, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Cerundolo J.65%
Zhou Y.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cerundolo J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.7+213 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.3Hard Elo 1445
9.2Overall Elo 1790
ELO gap
0.8Overall Elo 1456
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.7
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Zhou Y.

Zhou Y.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
13
Break points saved·Slight edge
82
87
Break points won·Dominant
73
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
1
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
14

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Cerundolo J.: 20 days rest · Zhou Y.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 85%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw