Mattia Bellucci vs Kamil Majchrzak — Hangzhou Round of 32
POL8
Bellucci M.
Mattia Bellucci faces Kamil Majchrzak in the Hangzhou round of 32 on hard. Kamil Majchrzak is the paper favourite — ranked #73, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage — but Mattia Bellucci has won their only previous meeting. Mattia Bellucci brings the better recent hard form (3 of 7).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Majchrzak K. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Mattia Bellucci leads on Serve Rating (30), Kamil Majchrzak on Return Rating (49).
- Under pressure: Mattia Bellucci has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 39 vs Kamil Majchrzak's 16).
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at US Open 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBellucci M.: 19 days rest · Majchrzak K.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-22 | US Open | Q32 | hard | Mattia Bellucci | 6-3 6-3 |