Keegan Smith vs Edward Winter β€” San Diego 2 Round of 32

San Diego 2 Β· CHALLENGER Β· Round of 32
#194ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
$108kYTD
$255kCAREER
28 yrs Β· 201 cm Β· Right-handed
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LLLLWWWLLW
2 β€” 1
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 Β·
hard
#338ATP
1434ELO
1404Hard ELO
$68kYTD
$247kCAREER
22 yrs Β· 178 cm Β· Right-handed
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LLLWWWLWWL
Smith K.
6-3 4-6 6-2
Winter E.
Smith K.
6462
Winter E.
3621

Keegan Smith defeated Edward Winter in the Round of 32 at the San Diego 2 hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 in favor of Smith. Smith served four aces and committed one double fault, while converting 38% of break points and winning three service breaks, compared to Winter's one ace, zero double faults, 75% break point conversion, and three service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum Β· Final
Smith K.12/15
Winter E.8/14

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

  • Match story: Keegan Smith closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·Slight edge
74%
65%
1st serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
55%
48%
Service points wonΒ·Slight edge
67%
60%
Return points wonΒ·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points savedΒ·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / matchΒ·Dominant
7.0
2.5
Double faults / matchΒ·Clear edge
1.7
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 21:50 UTC
Smith K.53%
Winter E.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up Β· Too close to call

Calibrated model Β· 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1395
Surface ELO
5.1+9 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1434
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.45 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.4Won 73% in USA (83)
Country comfort
5.8Won 63% in USA (38)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
FreshnessΒ·Slight edge
71
76

Smith K.: 1 day rest Β· 2 matches, 63 games (7d) Β· Winter E.: 1 day rest Β· 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25Β°CDrizzle
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw