Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira — M15 Curitiba Round of 32
M15 Curitiba · ITF · Round of 32
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
Osorio J.vs
Ortenblad Nogueira H.
Juan Sebastian Osorio faces Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira in the M15 Curitiba round of 32 on clay. Juan Sebastian Osorio holds the paper edge — ranked #731.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTCOsorio J.61%
Ortenblad Nogueira H.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Osorio J. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Juan Sebastian Osorio 3 of 6, Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira 1 of 6 on clay recently — Juan Sebastian Osorio the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Juan Sebastian Osorio carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on clay
Surface form0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
6 vs 3 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
53%
Return points won·Even
36%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
58%
46%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.2
0.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
4.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Osorio J.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 77%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.