Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate — St. Tropez Round of 32
FRAQ
Martineau M.
Matteo Martineau faces Tristan Schoolkate in the St. Tropez round of 32 on hard. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #152, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Schoolkate T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Tristan Schoolkate has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 46 vs Matteo Martineau's 9).
- Form trend: Matteo Martineau's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Tristan Schoolkate's has cooled.
- Last match: Matteo Martineau dropped just 4 games past Justin Boulais.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMartineau M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 76 games (7d) · Schoolkate T.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.