Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith — San Diego 2 Round of 32

San Diego 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Stefan Kozlov
USA
Stefan Kozlov
#292ATP
1429ELO
1408Hard ELO
$50kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLWLLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
USA4
Colton Smith
#205ATP
1577ELO
1566Hard ELO
$230kYTD
$556kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10
LWWLLLLLWW
Kozlov S.
vs
Smith C.

Stefan Kozlov faces Colton Smith in the San Diego 2 round of 32 on hard. Colton Smith holds the paper edge — ranked #205, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Kozlov S.42%
Smith C.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Smith C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Colton Smith has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 62 vs 11).
  • Fatigue load: Stefan Kozlov carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 2 of 8 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Kozlov S. 0–1 · Smith C. 0–1 · small sample
Both lost · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kozlov S.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Smith C.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1408
Surface ELO
7.0+157 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1577
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.12 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.6Won 59% in USA (27)
Country comfort
6.2Won 71% in USA (41)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Kozlov S.Smith C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
3.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kozlov S.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Smith C.

Smith C.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kozlov S.Smith C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
62
Break points saved·Dominant
29
94
Break points won·Clear edge
35
52
Deciding sets·Dominant
55
92
Tiebreaks·Even
7
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kozlov S.Smith C.
Freshness·
91
—

Kozlov S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CDrizzle
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 86%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw