Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Billy HarrisSt. Tropez Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#146ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$407kYTD
$861kCAREER
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWLWL
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
#231ATP
1508ELO
1473Hard ELO
$357kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
31 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWLWLL
Budkov Kjaer N.
vs
Harris B.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer faces Billy Harris in the St. Tropez round of 32 on hard. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer holds the paper edge — ranked #146, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.73%
Harris B.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Budkov Kjaer N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Budkov Kjaer N. 0–1 · Harris B. 0–1 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 1 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+125 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1473
6.4Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1508
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
5.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Harris B.

Harris B.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Serve advantage — Budkov Kjaer N.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
22
Break points saved·Even
78
74
Break points won·Dominant
39
0
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
70
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
1

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
87
91

Budkov Kjaer N.: 10 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Harris B.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw