Karl Friberg vs Nikola SlavicM25 Falun Round of 32

M25 Falun · ITF · Round of 32
#814ATP
$7kYTD
$116kCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWWWL
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
#816ATP
$9kYTD
$40kCAREER
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLWWW
Friberg K.
vs
Slavic N.

Karl Friberg faces Nikola Slavic in the M25 Falun round of 32 on hard. Karl Friberg holds the paper edge — ranked #814, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Friberg K.68%
Slavic N.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Friberg K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Nikola Slavic carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Head-to-head: Karl Friberg leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M15 Malmo 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
2.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.91 of last 6 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

4 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
42%
Service points won·Even
59%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
63%
49%
Aces / match·Even
4.3
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Friberg K.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Slavic N.

Slavic N.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Friberg K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Slavic N.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
15°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-15M15 MalmoSFclayKarl Friberg6-2 6-2

Draw