Murphy Cassone vs Clement Tabur — St. Tropez Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
USAQ
Murphy Cassone
#318ATP
1429ELO
1393Hard ELO
$99kYTD
$347kCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWWWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
Clement Tabur
FRA
Clement Tabur
#160ATP
1607ELO
1573Hard ELO
$285kYTD
$726kCAREER
26 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWWWL
Cassone M.
vs
Tabur C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Cassone M.36%
Tabur C.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Tabur C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cassone M.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tabur C.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
7.3+180 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1607
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.26 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 41 matches

Statistics

This season
Cassone M.Tabur C.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.0
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cassone M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Tabur C.

Tabur C.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Cassone M.

Serve advantage — Tabur C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cassone M.Tabur C.
Clutch Rating·Even
31
29
Break points saved·Clear edge
88
74
Break points won·Slight edge
18
23
Deciding sets·Clear edge
15
33
Tiebreaks·Dominant
67
40

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cassone M.Tabur C.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
91

Cassone M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Tabur C.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw